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| Registros recuperados: 30 | |
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| Brorsen, B. Wade; Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey. |
| Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood functions. The methods are shown to provide identical model rankings in large samples and similar rankings in small samples. The likelihood function method is slightly better at detecting forecast accuracy in small samples, while receiver-operator curves are better at comparing forecasts across different data. By improving forecasts of fed-cattle quality grades, the forecast evaluation methods are shown to increase cattle marketing revenues by $2.59/head. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Marketing. |
| Ano: 2004 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19017 |
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| Chang, Jae Bong; Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey. |
| We compare the ability of three preference elicitation methods (hypothetical choices, non-hypothetical choices, and non-hypothetical rankings) and three discrete-choice econometric models (the multinomial logit, the independent availability logit, and the random parameter logit) to predict actual retail shopping behavior in three different product categories (ground beef, wheat flour, and dishwashing liquid). Overall, across all methods, we find a reasonably high level of external validity. Our results suggest that the non-hypothetical elicitation approaches, especially the non-hypothetical ranking, outperformed the hypothetical choice experiment in predicting retail sales. We also find that the random parameter logit can have superior predictive... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Contingent valuation; Choice experiments; Experimental economics; External validity; Field experiment; Agribusiness; Consumer/Household Economics; Marketing; Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2008 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43600 |
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| Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey; Brorsen, B. Wade. |
| Little research has been conducted on evaluating out-of-sample forecasts of limited dependent variables. This study describes the large and small sample properties of two forecast evaluation techniques for limited dependent variables: receiver-operator curves and out-of-sample-log-likelihood functions. The methods are shown to provide identical model rankings in large samples and similar rankings in small samples. The likelihood function method is slightly better at detecting forecast accuracy in small samples, while receiver-operator curves are better at comparing forecasts across different data. By improving forecasts of fed-cattle quality grades, the forecast evaluation methods are shown to increase cattle marketing revenues by $2.59/head. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2003 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/34612 |
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| Gunderson, Michael A.; Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey. |
| A relative increase in demand for quality can have one of two potentially countervailing effects: it can cause substitution of one quality for another and/or it might expand overall demand by bringing new consumers into the market. This article investigates demand expansion and substitution among beef qualities by exploiting the use of a no-purchase option in a nonhypothetical choice experiment involving real food and real money. A random parameters logit model, which permits very flexible substitution patterns, is used to show that expanding demand for high quality rib-eye steak increases revenue by a greater degree than expanding demand for low quality steak. Regardless of whether high or low quality demand is expanded, the expansion effect dominates the... |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Demand and Price Analysis. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19465 |
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| Norwood, F. Bailey; Roberts, Matthew C.; Lusk, Jayson L.. |
| Six popular crop yield distributions are compared to determine which best describes yield fluctuations out-of-sample. For 183 crop and county combinations, each distribution is estimated and ranked according to its log-likelihood function observed at out-of-sample observations. A semiparametric model dominates the contest for most crops and counties, likely due to its flexibility and treatment of heteroskedasticity. Most other models ranked lower because their variance equation performed poorly out-of-sample. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Crop Production/Industries. |
| Ano: 2002 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/19733 |
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| Norwood, F. Bailey; Lusk, Jayson L.; Ferrier, Peyton Michael. |
| While the combination of several or more models is often found to improve forecasts (Brandt and Bessler, Min and Zellner, Norwood and Schroeder), hypothesis tests are typically conducted using a single model approach 1 . Hypothesis tests and forecasts have similar goals; they seek to define a range over which a parameter should lie within a degree of confidence. If it is true that, on average, composite forecasts are more accurate than a single model's forecast, it might also be true that hypothesis tests using information from numerous models are, on average, more accurate in the sense of lower Type I and Type II errors than hypothesis tests using a single model. |
| Tipo: Conference Paper or Presentation |
Palavras-chave: Research Methods/ Statistical Methods. |
| Ano: 2001 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/18964 |
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| Lusk, Jayson L.; Norwood, F. Bailey. |
| The effects of various supply and demand shifts on beef price, quantity, and industry welfare have been widely studied under the assumption of beef quality homogeneity. In this paper, we construct a model of the beef sector that incorporates differences in beef quality. The model is used to analyze the effect of supply and demand shifts on changes in prices and quantities of high-and low-quality beef and changes in revenue accruing to producers of high-and low-quality beef. Model results indicate that supply and demand shocks have the potential to alter the average quality of beef on the market and the price premium charged for high-quality beef, which has important implications for retailers selling quality-differentiated beef and producers selling... |
| Tipo: Journal Article |
Palavras-chave: Beef; Equilibrium displacement model; Multisector model; Quality heterogeneity; Q11; Q18. |
| Ano: 2005 |
URL: http://purl.umn.edu/43483 |
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| Registros recuperados: 30 | |
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